Bloomberg News reports that the S&P 500 is heading for the worst first half it has witnessed since 1962. It is according to the analysis by S&P Dow Jones Global Indices. Historically states that there has been little or no correlation between the performance in the first and second half and the index’s performance.
What’s more Known From the Analysis?
The S&P500 lost 21% in the 1970s first half when inflation was very high, and the prevailing environment is now being compared with it. It has been found to gain 27% in the past six months of that particular year. In 2020, it plunged by 4% towards the first half, and in the latter part of the year, it surged by 21%.
This does not mean that it is signaling an all-clear. How the second half will churn out is a coin to toss. Since 1957, in those years when the first half of S&P 500 has witnessed a first half that was negative, about half of 50% of the time, the second half had been a negative one as well, according to Anu Ganti, who is associated with S&P Dow Jones as a senior director of index investment strategy.
She also said that it was not easy to predict what might happen based on past performances. For the test of 2022, the odds appear good since there has already been a probability of a mild recession, according to Brent Schutte. He is the chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management.
Bloomberg News reports that there are signs of inflation cooling as the personal consumption expenditures price index of May, which the Federal Reserve is using for the inflation target, surged less than anticipated.
