Bloomberg News reports that the Wall Street career of Bob Michele kicked off during the early 1980s when stagflation was reigning supreme. And after 40 years, the chief investment officer of JPMorgan Asset Management revealed that the economic outlook is appearing even worse, with the impending recession in the United States appearing to be more likely than a landing that might be soft.
More on the Matter
The central banks are far from reversing the period of easy money while inflation is looking even more entrenching, believe Michele.
The pessimism of Bob Michele reflects the first half of the year, which is historically wrong, and the one that is just ending. The combined value of stocks and bonds across the globe has dropped at a record level, as per Bloomberg data that dates to the 1990s, with $8 trillion being wiped off from the S&P500 alone.
With the books closed now, the NASDAQ 100 has plunged by about 30% during the first half, whereas MSCI World Index has dipped by more than 20%.
There are a few safe havens while genuine forecasts leading into the year have backfired. The 10-year yield, a major benchmark for the valuation of equities, corporate debt, and mortgages, has become twice in the current year, from 1.5% to the recent high of approximately 3.5%, which is a level that was last seen in 2011.
The dip in the cryptocurrency market and especially in Ethereum and Bitcoin, has siphoned off trillions in value that were once considered high-flying tokens. It is an asset class that was not present in the past market crises.
Bloomberg News reports that the only outperformers were the commodities as supply disrupted the Russia-Ukraine war.
The stock strategists continue to be bullish. John Stoltzfus of Oppenheimer foresees the S&P500 at the end of 2022 at 5,330, which will require a rally of about 40% in the coming six months. Credit Suisse Group AG and JPMorgan have targets requiring the index’s rebound by 30%, is to be met. Strategists at Wall Street, on average, see the S&P500 index gaining beyond 20%.
Nevertheless, the damage will likely be less than it was during the inflation-led recession of the credit crisis of 2008. It has led to a decline in profit by 57%, as written by the chief investment officer Lisa Shalett of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
However, if Bob Michele is correct about the faint prospects for a soft landing, stocks and credit, risk assets, could perform even worse.
